The transfers of Moroccans living abroad (MRE) should reach a record 87 billion dirhams (MMDH) this year, achieving a growth of 27.7%, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) forecasts.
“After an increase of 4.9% in 2020, the transfers of MREs would show a significant increase of 27.7% in 2021 to reach a record of 87 billion dirhams, before falling by 5% to 82.7 billion dirhams in 2022,” said BAM in a statement sanctioning the work of the third quarterly meeting of its Board for 2021, held this Wednesday.
The Central Bank also reports that foreign trade data to the end of August show a broad-based acceleration in the recovery of goods trade.
This dynamic would continue with an increase in exports of 22.6% in 2021 and 5.9% in 2022, driven mainly by sales of phosphate and derivatives and automotive manufacturing, the same source estimates.
At the same time, imports are expected to increase by 19.6% in 2021, mainly reflecting the expected increases in purchases of capital and consumer goods, as well as the increase in the energy bill, before slowing down to 4% in 2022.
In addition, BAM underlines that the sanitary restrictions continue to weigh on the travel revenues with a new fall of 8.6% to 33.3 MMDH expected in 2021, after the 53.7% fall in 2020. In 2022, under the hypothesis of a significant reduction of these measures, these receipts should rebound to 60.7 MMDH, a level which remains however well below that of 78.7 MMDH recorded in 2019.
Under these conditions, the current account deficit would widen from 1.5% of GDP in 2020 to 2.5% in 2021, before narrowing to 1.4% in 2022.
As for foreign direct investment flows, they should oscillate around the equivalent of 3% of GDP over the forecast horizon, according to BAM. Taking into account, in particular, the expected external financing of the Treasury and the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) of 10.8 billion dirhams, the official reserve assets would be 335 billion dirhams at the end of 2021 and 345.1 billion dirhams at the end of 2022, i.e. the equivalent of more than 7 months of imports of goods and services.