The latest estimates of the HCP for the year 2021 exceed by far the expectations in terms of economic growth since the rebound of the GDP should be +7.2, thus erasing the contraction of -6.3% of 2020. This is what BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR) has just underlined in its “Strategy” of January 2022 entitled “A good economic momentum not to be dissipated in 2022”.
This recovery is essentially carried by the realization of a good agricultural year, allowing to generate an increase of almost +18% of the added value of the primary sector, and the acceleration of the domestic demand, more dynamic in the wake of the improvement of the health situation, specifies the same source.
In sequential terms, the quarterly evolution of the GDP shows an important base effect from the second quarter with +15.2%. For the thirdème and fourthème quarters, BKGR analysts estimate that growth will continue its upward trend “albeit at a slower pace with +7.8% and +4.9% respectively.
In 2021, the growth of internal demand is, in large part, due to the strengthening of household consumption at a time when gross investment is regaining its form and is up by +13.3%, mainly due to the renewed interest of investors in construction and industry.
On the other hand, the external demand addressed to Morocco was not favourable in 2021. Figures from the Office de change in support, exports increased by 24.3% at the end of December 2021 to 326.9 billion dirhams against a similar increase of 25% for imports to 526.7 billion dirhams. As a result, the trade deficit deteriorated by 25% to MAD -199.7 billion for a quasi-stable coverage rate of 62.1%. The contribution of the net foreign demand to the growth of the GDP should thus be negative between -1.4 and -1.6 points, by deepening the deficit of the current account of the balance of payments, it is explained.
Citing the HCP, BKGR recalls that the need for financing should thus be accentuated to stand at -2.5% of GDP in 2021 against -1.8% in 2020. This reflects the fragility of the external trade situation and the insufficiency of national savings. The government’s gross investment rate (28.7% of GDP) is still higher than the gross investment rate (31.3% of GDP).
In the register of public finances, BKGR notes that the execution of the Finance Law 2021 shows at the end of December a budget deficit of -70.9 billion dirhams against -82.3 billion dirhams a year earlier, bringing its level in the GDP to -6% against -7.6% in 2020.
In order to meet this need, the Treasury mainly turned to the domestic debt market, raising MAD 149.3 billion against MAD 164.4 billion a year earlier, while repayments in principal totalled MAD 102.8 billion against MAD 10.2 billion in 2020.
Regarding external borrowings, they were mobilised for only 18.4 billion dirhams including debt amortization for 10.2 billion dirhams.
Finally, for 2022, BKGR analysts indicate that the scenario of deceleration of economic growth to +2.9 (perfectly aligned with Bank Al-Maghrib) remains in place. It could, however, be thwarted by the significant delay in rainfall, particularly between December and January. If this situation persists at the end of March, it should strongly impact the cereal harvest (initially expected at 72 MQtx) and, de facto, further degrade the projected negative contribution of agricultural value added to GDP.
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