A U.S. Institute of Health Studies at the University of Washington is painting a black picture of the evolution of the pandemic in Morocco and believes that the Kingdom is moving toward a worsening of the pandemic. A generalized reconfinement by 2021 is even being considered.
This study, relayed by our colleagues in L’Opinion, is based on five indicators: the overall number of deaths, the daily death toll, the infection toll, the number of tests administered, the capacity of Moroccan hospitals and the degree of compliance with preventive measures (wearing masks, physical distancing).
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates that the number of deaths will skyrocket in the next three months to reach 1,000 daily deaths by the end of December, before a projected decline beginning in January. According to this scenario, based on non-compliance with health protection measures, up to 300,000 contaminations are expected in early December.
In light of these alarmist forecasts, Morocco would need more than 37,843 hospital beds, including 8,000 intensive care beds equipped with 6,700 respirators. However, it is known that currently, the Kingdom has announced that it has 20,000 beds including 1,200 resuscitation beds, a figure questioned by the study which indicates that the Kingdom has only 660 resuscitation beds.
For the researchers of this institute, the rate of mask wearing is limited to 53% of the population, compared to the desirable rate of 95%, and social mobility has strongly resumed after the lifting of the confinement which had limited this mobility to -73%.
The IHME argues that Covid-19 will continue to spread in 2021 unless an effective drug or vaccine is discovered by then and advocates a return to general population containment.
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