The government is closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine, which has repercussions on the national economy. Diplomacy is monitoring the evacuation operation of Moroccan nationals stranded in a country at war.
Thursday 3 March 2022. The spectre of death hangs over Ukraine on the eighth day of the Russian invasion. Russian forces continue their offensive on several cities. Vladimir Putin’s army claims to have captured the port city of Kherson and new strikes on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, are causing intense fighting. The scenes transmitted by television channels and amateur videos on social networks are macabre.
Dozens of civilians are among the victims of a merciless war waged by an undisputed military power with a large stockpile of nuclear weapons. After several weeks of threats and military exercises on the border, Russian President Vladimir decided to invade Ukraine to, he said, defend the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and to guard against missiles aimed at his country by a pro-Western Ukrainian regime.
Except that on the ground, what started out as a military deterrence operation has turned into a destructive war on Ukraine’s infrastructure, with messages to the Europeans and the United States that give an idea of what the Russian response would be to all those who threaten Russia’s security. But the war burns everything in its path. The images are shocking. At the United Nations headquarters on Wednesday 2 March, a General Assembly was held, dedicated to this ongoing war.
It adopted a resolution deploring in the strongest terms Russia’s “aggression” against Ukraine and demanding that Russia immediately withdraw its military forces from Ukrainian territory. The text was adopted with 141 votes in favour, 5 against (Russia, Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea and Syria) and 35 abstentions. The resolution, which was co-sponsored by 96 member states, needed a two-thirds majority to be adopted. It is non-binding. The vote comes days after Russia vetoed a draft Security Council resolution that also deplored Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
The Kingdom of Morocco did not participate in this vote. Morocco’s non-participation in the vote is a sovereign decision. It cannot be interpreted as “a strategic misalignment” or as “a position against international law and the territorial integrity of States”, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, African Cooperation and Moroccans Residing Abroad stresses.
This position can only be analysed as part of a whole that includes the first communiqué of 26 February and the second communiqué of 2 March. In these two communiqués, the ministry stressed that Morocco was following with concern the evolution of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, reiterated its support for the territorial integrity and national unity of all UN member states, recalled Morocco’s attachment to the principle of non-use of force for the settlement of disputes between states, and encouraged all initiatives and actions favouring a peaceful settlement of conflicts.
In addition, Morocco’s position is based on interests and principles. The Kingdom has a national cause that determines its positions. Knowing that it is facing permanent members of the Security Council, in this case the United States and Russia. This wise positioning confirms that, for Morocco, both old and new strategic partners count.
12 February, 12 days before the invasion of Ukraine, the Moroccan Embassy in Kiev recommends Moroccan citizens to leave the country. “In light of the current situation, the Embassy of the Kingdom of Morocco in Kiev recommends Moroccan citizens in Ukraine to leave the country for their safety via available commercial flights. The Embassy also calls on Moroccan citizens wishing to travel to Ukraine to postpone their trip at this time,” reads the statement from the Kingdom’s diplomatic representation.
Moroccan diplomacy then came to their aid by negotiating with the RAM preferential flights from Ukraine. In a few days, nearly 3,000 Moroccans managed to reach the Kingdom directly from Ukraine (exceptional flights) or via Turkey. This operation was disrupted from 24 February, the day of the invasion of the country by Russia.
Rabat then mobilised its diplomatic and consular apparatus to discuss with the Kingdom’s embassies in Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia everything that could be done to evacuate the Moroccans who were still blocked. The ambassadors or their representatives are going to the border posts to facilitate the evacuation operations by asking the authorities of the countries bordering Ukraine to facilitate the movement of their nationals without a Schengen visa. Nearly 3,000 Moroccans have managed to flee Ukraine in less than a week. Most of them are students. Royal Air Maroc participated in this mobilisation and solidarity movement and scheduled flights from neighbouring countries at symbolic prices (750 dirhams).
In Morocco, several families are devastated. They are afraid for their children (students) who are still looking for a way to get to the border posts. In some towns, it is risky. Especially in the city of Soumy, in the north-east of Ukraine. The government is closely monitoring the evacuation operation but also the situation on the ground and its impact on the national economy. The Ukrainian crisis is a good lesson for those who still doubt that the world has become a global village, to use the expression of the Canadian intellectual Marshall McLuhan, taken from his book The Medium is the Massage, published in 1967.
What happens on the other side of the world is bound to have an impact on the rest of the world. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has led to a rise in international oil and gas prices, which has had repercussions on prices at the pump in Morocco. On an economic level, in view of this surge in international prices, the forecasts for the purchase of hydrocarbons in the framework of the 2022 finance law are below the real prices. This crisis has also contributed to a significant increase in the price of raw materials and cereals, particularly wheat. It is known that, year after year, Morocco imports soft and hard wheat to compensate for its low production.
And Ukraine and Russia are among the Kingdom’s main suppliers of soft and durum wheat, alongside France and Canada, among others. The rise in international wheat and energy prices implies a significant loss of the country’s foreign exchange reserves. This crisis has rekindled fears of negative repercussions on economies that import fossil fuels and raw materials such as Morocco’s.
The budget law for the year 2022 was drawn up on the basis of the assumptions of an average butane gas price of 450 dollars per tonne and an average oil price of 80 dollars per barrel. In addition, world market prices for cereals and hydrocarbons are soaring.
Soaring pricesAs the
war in Ukraine has developed, energy and agricultural markets have been subject to very high price volatility with the spectre of supply disruption being raised. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil continued to rise wildly. On Thursday 3 March, it reached $118, a historic first since 2013. These forecasts are worrying for Moroccans’ wallets. Some analysts envisage a surge to 150 dollars a barrel in the weeks to come if the fighting continues in Ukraine and supplies become more difficult.
Talk of a definite negative impact on public finances does not mean that Morocco will enter a major economic crisis. It is true that tax and non-tax revenues have been shrinking for some years now, and that the government will have to compensate even more for the rise in international prices, but this ongoing war in Ukraine will be a strong temporary wave. Unless the war lasts a long time…
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